Stock market

Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In Stocks for the Long Run, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the DJIA were not followed by a recession.

The real-estate market also usually weakens before a recession.[21] However real-estate declines can last much longer than recessions.[22]

Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.[23]

During an economic decline, high yield stocks such as fast moving consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco tend to hold up better.[24] However when the economy starts to recover and the bottom of the market has passed (sometimes identified on charts as a MACD[25]), growth stocks tend to recover faster. There is significant disagreement about how health care and utilities tend to recover.[26] Diversifying one’s portfolio into international stocks may provide some safety; however, economies that are closely correlated with that of the U.S. may also be affected by a recession in the U.S.

There is a view termed the halfway rule[28] according to which investors start discounting an economic recovery about halfway through a recession. In the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the average length has been 13 months, although the recent recessions have been shorter. Thus if the 2008 recession followed the average, the downturn in the stock market would have bottomed around November 2008. The actual US stock market bottom of the 2008 recession was in March 2009.

Here are some interesting facts as taken from a recent USA Today article:

* 16 out of the 30 corporations that make up the current Dow Jones Industrial Average started during a recession
* Walt Disney Corporation began during the recession in 1923-24.
* Hewlett-Packard Corporation began in 1938 during the Great Depression.
* Microsoft Corporation began during the 1975 recession.

This USA Today also notes that in the recession of the early 90s, 25% of downsized executives over 40 started their own companies. It makes you think that, perhaps, recession is a natural way to clean house and restart the economy anew, even though it is very painful.
Why Recession is a Good Time to Start a Small Business

Many people spend years tinkering with a product in their garage. Others spend time drawing out ideas for a special service in their home office. However, they hold down full-time jobs and never have time to go ahead with their inventions. During a recession, if their job status changes, it may be just the time to go forward with their inventions and ideas.

The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, V-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–91; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974-75, and W-shaped , or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980-82. Japan’s 1993-94 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997-99 can be described as L-shaped. Korea, Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997-98, although Thailand’s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.

Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if the expectation develops that economic activity will slow, firms may decide to reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession.[8] Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term “Animal Spirits” has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term “…refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people.

The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.

This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons. First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it is called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year.

Among the most common forms of savings that are not legislated or supervised in our country are:

• Commercial companies that take in deposits, have seen isolated cases of some Sofomes-like Sarofin and Inverban, which captured the saving public resources, when their nature is to grant loans, reverse factoring and leasing.

• In making disguised recruitment operations incurred in an illegal and may be punishable by the NBSC, the entity responsible for seeing that there is no fundraising irregularly.

• Financial pyramids: there are individuals and companies that invite you to participate with your money and offer high yields ranging from 3 to 5 percent per month. Beware, it may be pyramids.

• A pyramid is based on the original participants refer more customers so that they bring benefits to older participants. Ie your money paid to those who have more time, and the thunders scheme if no new participants. Hence the name pyramid requires that the number of new participants more than existing ones. Usually this type of scheme becomes a fraud or scam for the last to enter.

• The Forex, Foreign Exchange and Foreign Exchange Market : a speculative market that operates 24 hours a day around the world and is not regulated in our country.

Those who carry out such operations seek to anticipate changes in the international currency prices and thus profit. If the expectation is met earnings are obtained, but if not, the investment is lost.
The promoters of these investments do not have authorization or the Ministry of Finance or the CNBV, and those affected can not complain to the Condusef, it is not within its competence, so that his defense must turn to other countries.
In our country, some firms that act as financial analysts invite you to participate in this market, signing a brokerage or commission agreements with a foreign intermediary and in case of a problem, the office is not responsible and the only thing you have left is bringing legal action outside of Mexico.
Finally, should you care Condusef where you put your savings and invest in serious financial institutions. For these purposes, you can consult the Register of Providers of Financial Services.

A recession is a period of longer than twelve months during which the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product of an economy is negative.

For the National Bureau of Economic Research (National Bureau of Economic Research) U.S. recession seen as any decline in economic activity continued for two or more consecutive quarters.

When there is no growth, and there is inflation , it says there is stagflation. If the recession lasts for a long time is called depression.

From this definition, you can not have 100% certainty of being in a recession until they have spent at least six months. Not pregnant, no symptoms that can help define where the economy is Drigo.

What are the symptoms that suggest a recession?

• Rising unemployment, the inability to generate new jobs because there is no growth, in the case of negative growth, increasing layoffs.
• Decrease in consumption, either by increasing prices (inflation) or by reduced consumption capacity (less money, higher interest rates on loans, etc).
• Increase in nonperforming loans of funds, due to lack of ability to pay of debtors, which in turn is caused by inflation and rising interest rates.
• Decline in GDP, since it reduces consumption.
• Increase in inventories, especially in manuacturera industry.

• Rising unemployment, the inability to generate new jobs because there is no growth, in the case of negative growth, increasing layoffs.

• Decreased consumption, either by increasing prices (inflation) or by reduced consumption capacity (less money, higher interest rates on loans, etc).

• Increase in nonperforming loans of funds, due to lack of ability to pay of debtors, which in turn is caused by inflation and rising interest rates.

• Reduction of GDP, by reducing consumption.

• Increase in inventories, especially in manuacturera industry.

The economic crisis does not subside in Chavez’s Venezuela, despite the oil, while Latin America comes out
The economic downturn suffered by Venezuela for more than a year, with a tendency to drag on indefinitely, will greatly influence the vote on the legislation today. Social unrest is to be expressed with a “punishment vote” for the management of the Government, according to polls.

Venezuelans look with envy favorable growth of its neighbors in the region, while its economy out of the ground and has prospects and its road infrastructure, industrial and energy is falling apart. This is contradictory because the country is high oil export revenues, say economists and business ABC.
Along with 26 economists, Pedro Palma has just published the document “Economic crisis and ineffective government”, which says the crisis will continue and is mainly due to a misconception: the XXI century socialism, “similar in theory, discourse and objectives Marxist socialism failed in the last century. ”

Noel Alvarez, president of the employers Fedecámaras, believes that the fall in GDP is between 4.5% and 5.5% this year, inflation close to 35%. The highest in Latin America. Reiterates its call on the Government to establish a national dialogue, which has been rejected by Hugo Chávez, who has said he wants nothing to do with business and the oligarchy. Alvarez claims that Chavez has weakened national production. “It encourages imports. A country can not survive on a port economy. Been expropriated between 200 and 400 companies in the past two years. Why not create confidence in investors. The Government is in the confrontation and destruction of private enterprise. ”

The former president of Fedecamaras Albis Muñoz emphasized the “sharp fall in domestic and foreign investment. Nobody wants to invest. There is distrust of the communist model, which impact on the deterioration and maintenance of infrastructure. ” Muñoz said that Chavez’s political system “is against private property and free enterprise. We have created a corporate legal fence choking us. The infrastructure is in the ground because the vast majority of oil revenues into the hands of corruption. ”

Best foreign
President Chavez prefers to foreign investors (loyal to their project) as nationals. Kreab consultancy Gavin Anderson made a survey of Spanish investors and found that 60% declines to invest in Venezuela and 32% say that investment has a high risk. Their objections are the lack of legal certainty, expropriation and violence.

The power crisis has affected oil and the decline in manufacturing and industrial production both private and public. The monopoly of the state oil industry, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), and failures recorded a deterioration in refining infrastructure, though its revenue of 950,000 million dollars in 11 years in power. The engineer Guillermo Ovalle, head of the electricity commission and president of Fedecamaras employers of Aragua, believes the Government has not made the investments and maintenance of the power plant.